Refugees returning home: statistical research
Who among Ukrainian refugees plans to return home and who will stay abroad About 43% of Ukrainian refugees plan to return to Ukraine, while 36% have other plans and do not consider returning. These are the results of a study by the Centre for Economic Strategy. 🔹 Ukrainians abroad after four years of full-scale war According to researchers, as of January 2026, about 5.6 million citizens are outside Ukraine. ▪️ The main characteristics of refugees: ➖ 71% of adults have higher education ➖ 66% are people of working age ➖ A significant part of them left big cities - Kyiv, Kharkiv, Dnipro, Odesa ➖ At the same time, 40% of refugees are adult women, but the share of men is gradually increasing 🔹 How many people can return ▪️ Researchers consider two scenarios of Ukrainians' return: ➖ Optimistic - about 2 million people will return ➖ Pessimistic - only 1 million to 1.3 million Older people, especially those aged 50+ (about half), are most likely to return, while young people are much less likely to return (about a third). 🔹 Four groups of Ukrainian refugees The study divides Ukrainian refugees into four clusters according to their intentions to return home.▪️ Classic war refugees - 39% People who left because of hostilities or occupation. These are middle-aged people, 27% of them are over 50 years old. A significant proportion are from the east of the country. ➖ 63% of them want to return ➖ 90% have temporary protection in European countries ▪️ New life trajectory - 22% Mostly young people under 35. They left relatively safe regions, consciously choosing a new path. Financially, they are the most successful refugees, with every second having a job in their speciality or qualification and working full-time. Only 12% plan to return.▪️ With strong ties to Ukraine - 22% These people have integrated well, but retain close ties to their homeland. ➖ 51% plan to return ➖ 19% have an income from their home country ➖ 55% regularly send money to Ukraine ▪️ Economically vulnerable - 17% Mostly single mothers or women with difficulties in finding employment and language skills. They often depend on social assistance, but rarely think about returning. 🔹 A demographic challenge for Ukraine About 31% of Ukrainian refugees are children under 18, and 56% are people under 35. Researchers warn that such a migration pattern creates a serious demographic problem, as the country is losing a significant portion of its young and working population.
